Download Home Favorite Losing Football System

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Strategies' started by Admin, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. Admin

    Admin Administrator Staff Member

    Home Favorite Losing Football System

    Introduction
    The home - favorite-loss ("HFL") system works best on weekends when there are multiple league matches in play at roughly the same time-for example, on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. This is an inplay system, but the goal is to make it as simple as possible so that you don't have to commit a large amount of time. It can be applied to world leagues, but I use it mostly in major European leagues.

    System
    1) Select your home favorites list
    You will use it mostly on weekends. On Saturday afternoon, choose the leagues you like or are interested in. Pay attention to the favorites playing at home. You can easily find more than 10 home favorites in English, Italian, Spanish, Dutch, German leagues, etc. I define the home favorite as a team whose chances of winning before the start are 1.67 or lower. You can have your own threshold (either lower or higher), but I feel it's a useful guideline.

    Write down when these games start. Since most leagues have the same start (for example, the English Premier League is 3pm on a Saturday), this system is easy to use.

    NO BETS ARE PLACED BEFORE THE START OF THE MATCH OR IN THE FIRST HALF

    2) please Check your selection in the break
    Follow the selected home favorites at halftime (HT) and record the metrics. If one of the home favorites loses 0: 1, we will make two bets.

    Key moment of the half: 0-1 (loss of the home team's favorite). We are only interested in 0-1.

    On a busy weekend, you'll usually find 6-10 home favorites losing 0-1 in HT

    3) place your bets
    When we find that the home favorites are losing 0-1 in HT, we make the following 2 bets......
    1) back over 2.5 goals
    2) Put the current account at 3.00 - our bet on lei should be picked up in about 55-65 minutes. This is called the Lay bet. By doing this, we say that there will be no more goals in the final 25-35 minutes, when the score will be 0-1.

    Tradeā€¦
    When we make 2 bets at half-time, the bet on more than 2.5 goals is matched instantly, and the current score line ("layup bet") is second to none. Time to trade!!

    As soon as the 2nd half begins, the home favorite will push the players forward to chase the equalizer, and the home fans will cheer them on. There may be gaps in the defense, leaving both the opportunity to equalize the score of the pressing favorites of the hosts, and the possibility of a second goal for the guests.

    4) close the trade with a target of more than 2.5
    Scenario 1-Goal before the Lay bet is picked up
    Goal... If the target arrives before our Lay bet is picked up, we trade out of Over-beta.
    2.5 market for profit.

    This is the perfect scenario. If Scenario 1 occurs, you can ignore Step 5. Our trade is closed.

    Scenario 2-no goal for 55-65 minutes, and the Lay bet matches
    Once the Lay rate is matched (which we can expect in 55-65 minutes), we trade out of the market for more than 2.5 with a small loss. This will limit losses and protect the bank. We suffered a loss on the market of more than 2.5%, but we can still make a profit on the second stage of the transaction.

    5) close lei 0-1 trade result
    Once it matches between 55 and 65 minutes, you have two options
    1) Keep the deal open until the end of the game.
    2) Close the trade after a fixed period of time with a small loss (for example, as soon as the price reaches 2.50, trade).

    Option 1-save opening bids until full time
    If you decide to do this, you have 30 minutes (on average) to score a goal from either side to win your bet. This is a fairly safe strategy, since only one goal is needed. For this strategy to be successful, you will need a strike rate of 67%+ (assuming the stakes are level). If you can't reach this strike rate, you can enter progressive bets (or a Martingale strategy) after each losing bet to ensure that you make a profit with a lower strike rate.

    One way to improve the strike rate is to use statistics as a basis for selection. As mentioned earlier, we choose only those games in which the favorite will be evaluated with the price
    1.67 or lower to win before the start. We can also combine this selection criterion with teams that have a higher ratio of goals (scored or conceded) in the second half. Use of statistical sites, such as soccerstats.com can quickly help us identify such commands. The table below shows an example of goals scored at 15-minute intervals in the English Premier League, which can be used as an excellent guide.

    Another alternative is to use progressive rates. You can start your first bet by placing 4 pounds to win 2 pounds. If this bet loses, your next bet will be placed at 8 pounds to win 4 pounds. While this betting approach may not be suitable for everyone, if you use it in combination with a cautious betting strategy, this option is very profitable, and it is very unlikely that you will have a large number of consecutive losses.

    Remember that the vast majority of games with home favourites have goals in the second half. When a goal is scored, you will profit from either a deal with more than 2.5 goals or a Lay bet (if you choose to follow option 1).

    Option 2-close with a small loss
    After your Lei bet is matched to 3.0, you can set a goal to close the deal if the goal is not scored. This is different from option 1 above, where you leave the Lay bet open until full time. For example, you can decide if the price moves by 2.5 or decreases by 10%, then you will close. This means a loss of 10% to 16% (depending on the goal). With this option, if a goal is scored, you will get 33% profit, and if a goal is not scored, you will get a small loss. The amount of this loss will depend on the goal you set.

    The choice between option 1 and option 2 is entirely up to your own discretion and risk preference.

    Conclusion
    If you are able to tolerate some level of loss and apply discipline, then during the season it is a profitable system.
    In conclusion, it should be noted that the high-level summary:
    - Identify home favorites whose price is 1.67 or lower to win before the start
    - From this list, see which home favorites lose 0-1 in HT
    - In HT, back more than 2.5 goals (corresponds to)
    - Also in HT put the current account (0-1) @ 3.0 (unsurpassed)
    - If a goal is scored before a Lay-trade bet of more than 2.5 goals with a profit is selected
    - If a goal is not scored, exchange more than 2.5 goals for a small loss
    - If the Lay rate matches, then either allow it to open until full time (and apply a progressive betting strategy if you can't reach the 67%+ Strike rate), or decide which point to trade.
     

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